No, Russia is Not Losing the War in Ukraine: A Reply to Paul Schwennesen

A reply to a very strange report in Reason

A very strange essay published in Reason Magazine was brought to my attention. The author, Paul Schwennesen, recently went to Ukraine and crossed over into Kursk Oblast where the Ukrainian army launched an offensive in the summer.

To be frank, the piece reads like propaganda that one would expect from 2022 when the “Ghost of Kyiv” and other absurdities where still swirling around. Even Ukraine’s ardent cheerleaders have recognized that things are going badly. However, Schwennesen states that the inevitable conclusion of the fight, seemingly based soley on his in-person observations, is that Russia has already lost the war and will probably be broken apart.

To call this bonkers is an understatement, and I find it very weird that Reason would publish this drivel.

I wrote a response in detail, with numerous citations, something that Schwennesen’s piece is entirely lacking other than his own highly questionable testimony.

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On September 5th, Reason Magazine published a very strange assessment of the war in Ukraine, written by Paul Schwennesen, titled “The War in Ukraine Is Already Over—Russia Just Doesn’t Know it Yet.” In short, Schwennesen argues that, based on his experience recently traveling to the front in Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian will and high morale mean that the war is as good as over and that Ukrainian triumph is “inevitable.”

Schwennesen’s analysis that Russia has as good as lost the war and that its conclusion might very well lead to a collapse of the Russian Federation rests on the premise that the material factors of war do not matter, and that, “A war’s end, after all, is a matter of will, of spirit” and, “Wars are won in the heart of a people, not through the rational calculations of military planners.”

Schwennesen goes on and on about the high morale of the Ukrainian troops he witnessed in Kursk and contrastes this with what he characterizes as the absence of morale and active resistance among the Russian civilians he encountered. This leads him to conclude that the Russians are lacking the will to fight and will, therefore, be defeated. Yet, his junket to Ukraine (complete with what is likely a Ukrainian PR handler he calls his “comrade”) notwithstanding, the vast majority of evidence points in exactly the opposite direction when it comes to morale and the will to fight.

As John Mearsheimer explained at the beginning of 2023, the War in Ukraine turned into a war of attrition. The three main factors in a war of attrition are the balance of artillery, the balance of population, and the balance of resolve. Schwennesen seems to think that silly things like artillery and population don’t matter, but they are overwhelmingly on the side of Russia. This leaves the balance of resolve, which Schwennesen places entirely on the side of Ukraine. However, vast amounts of evidence contradict this also.

To begin with, one must consider why the war started. If one thinks that Puin invaded Ukraine on a whim with the intent to rebuild the Soviet Empire for his own personal aggrandizement, then one might think that there is little at stake on the Russian side of the fight. Yet, the picture looks entirely different if one concludes that the Russians believe that Ukrainian alignment with the West, specifically increased integration with NATO, is viewed as an existential threat that cannot be tolerated, then the stakes appear to be much higher.

Read the rest at the Mises Wire.